Playbook
Settlement rules: the same bet that isn't
An arbitrage covers every outcome only if both legs settle on the SAME definition of the outcome. Two bookmakers can call a market by the same name and settle it differently (extra time, abandonments, what counts as a corner), and inside that difference your 'covered' arb has a hole.
intro1
Why rules differ at all #
Every bookmaker writes its own settlement terms, inherited from different traditions (UK, continental, Asian) and different data providers. Football's core 1X2 is standardized on 90 minutes plus stoppage almost everywhere, which is why most arbs are safe; the edges (cup ties, statistics markets, abandoned matches) are where definitions drift apart.
The classic traps #
- Extra time: 'to qualify' and some knockout winner markets include extra time and penalties; 1X2 and most AH/totals do not. Pairing a 90-minute leg with an including-extra-time leg leaves the draw-then-decider results uncovered.
- Abandoned and postponed matches: some books void everything, some settle markets already decided (a first-half line on a match abandoned at 60 minutes), and the void windows (24h, 48h, 'next scheduled day') differ.
- Statistics markets: corners taken vs corners awarded, cards counted per player vs per incident, shots on target per provider. Two feeds, two answers, one 'covered' arb.
- Player markets: 'anytime scorer' with own goals excluded at one book and included at another; players who never enter the pitch void at some books and lose at others.
- Dead-heat and pushes: whole-line AH pushes refund, EH never refunds; a dead heat on outright markets divides stakes by book-specific rules.
The pre-bet discipline #
OddStorm only pairs markets that genuinely cover each other, so scanner arbs carry matched definitions. The discipline below is for the seconds at the bookmaker's site, where YOU pick the actual market from their list:
- Confirm the settlement window on both slips: 90 minutes vs including extra time is written on the market page of every serious book.
- On statistics and player markets, read the book's settlement note the FIRST time you use that market at that book; note it in your bookmaker sheet forever.
- When a match is at risk of abandonment (weather, crowd trouble) skip the arb: void-rule roulette between two books is not a bet you priced.
Where to go next #
The handicap guides (Asian and three-way) cover the push-refund mechanics that power half the traps above.
Related questions
See live surebets with the stakes already calculated.
Try OddStorm free